Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,827$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(692 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,562.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,562.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $120$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(108.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,149$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,016$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,976.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,976.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,968$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(674 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,931.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,931.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,248$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $243,344$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,697.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,697.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,984$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,079.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,079.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,919$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,431,574$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,705,589.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,705,589.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $136,466$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,616.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(127,616.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,246,010$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $292,931$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(6.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,602.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(281,602.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $45,053$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,942.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,942.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $246,493$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $76,001$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,474.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(100,474.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,545$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,369.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,369.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $70,456$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $200,456$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(6.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,650.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(186,650.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,078$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,792.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,792.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,278$ on 2020-07-14