Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,827$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(692 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,562.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,562.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(108.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,149$ on 2020-07-14

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,016$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,976.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,976.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,968$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(674 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,931.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,931.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,248$ on 2020-07-14

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $243,344$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,697.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,697.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,984$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,079.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,079.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,919$ on 2020-07-14

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,431,574$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,705,589.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,705,589.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $136,466$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,616.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(127,616.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,246,010$ on 2020-07-14

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $292,931$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,602.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(281,602.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45,053$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,942.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,942.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $246,493$ on 2020-07-14

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,001$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,474.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(100,474.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,545$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,369.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,369.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70,456$ on 2020-07-14

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $200,456$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,650.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(186,650.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,078$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,792.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,792.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,278$ on 2020-07-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Djibouti recovered 92%
Qatar recovered 91%
Uganda recovered 90%
Italy recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 88%
Turkey recovered 84%
Jamaica recovered 74%
Hungary recovered 73%
Belarus recovered 65%
Chile recovered 61%
Ghana recovered 56%
United Arab Emirates recovered 46%
Morocco recovered 44%
Poland recovered 37%
Nepal recovered 35%
Tajikistan recovered 34%
Iran recovered 32%
Pakistan recovered 29%
Bahrain recovered 26%
Mali recovered 19%
Somalia recovered 18%
Russia recovered 12%
Sudan recovered 12%
Armenia recovered 8%

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,979$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(542 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.58 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(57.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $180$ on 2020-07-14

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,533$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,038.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 90.7)}}\) (asimptote \(108,038.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $150$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.96 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.6)}}\) (asimptote \(188.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,223$ on 2020-07-14

Uganda⮸

Population $45,741,007$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,040$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(80.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,074.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 65.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,074.1\)) 
Uganda doesn't yet have 4.5741 dead per thousand.

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-07-14

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,551$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(126.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,674.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 18.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,674.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $289$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(112 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(275.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $914$ on 2020-07-14